How accurate are you in predicting the outright winner?
The Rational Sports Machine's primary mathematical models were in place during
the 2005 and 2007 seasons, when its accuracy was 69% and 70% respectively.
Compare that to the 63% average of the "experts" at ESPN and USA Today. We
know of one other numerically-based system that touts its 63% accuracy.
While past performance does not guarantee future results, we believe The
Machine's mathematical models are superior to human judgement over the long
run. Unlike humans, it's not prone to emotional bias or to giving too much weight
to "special" knowledge or breaking news. We are dedicated to continuously
improving its capabilities to maintain our competitive edge, so you can maintain
yours.
The Rational Sports Machine's primary mathematical models were in place during
the 2005 and 2007 seasons, when its accuracy was 69% and 70% respectively.
Compare that to the 63% average of the "experts" at ESPN and USA Today. We
know of one other numerically-based system that touts its 63% accuracy.
While past performance does not guarantee future results, we believe The
Machine's mathematical models are superior to human judgement over the long
run. Unlike humans, it's not prone to emotional bias or to giving too much weight
to "special" knowledge or breaking news. We are dedicated to continuously
improving its capabilities to maintain our competitive edge, so you can maintain
yours.
How does your system work?
Well, that's our secret sauce, and we're not going to
give a lot of details. However, we will tell you that the
Rational Sports Machine's predictions take into
account factors that represent the strength of each
team as well as other variables that can impact the
outcome of a game.
The founders of RationalPicks.com were instrumental
in creating and launching some of the most advanced
analytic technologies into commercial use. The same
scientific approach guides our work at
RationalPicks.com. During several years of
development, we've taken a great deal of data, thrown
a lot of sophisticated analytical techniques at it and
created what we believe is a superior way to predict
football outcomes. Over time, we will continue to
refine our models, methodologies, algorithms and
approaches to maintain that edge.
Well, that's our secret sauce, and we're not going to
give a lot of details. However, we will tell you that the
Rational Sports Machine's predictions take into
account factors that represent the strength of each
team as well as other variables that can impact the
outcome of a game.
The founders of RationalPicks.com were instrumental
in creating and launching some of the most advanced
analytic technologies into commercial use. The same
scientific approach guides our work at
RationalPicks.com. During several years of
development, we've taken a great deal of data, thrown
a lot of sophisticated analytical techniques at it and
created what we believe is a superior way to predict
football outcomes. Over time, we will continue to
refine our models, methodologies, algorithms and
approaches to maintain that edge.
What is The Rational Sports Machine?
The Rational Sports Machine, lovingly nicknamed The
Machine or just RSM, is the moniker we've given to the
complex set of data, systems, mathematical
functions, statistics, algorithms, and adaptive
processes that generate Rational Picks. While we
know in our heads that RSM is not a living being, it
does sometimes feel as if it's alive.
The Rational Sports Machine, lovingly nicknamed The
Machine or just RSM, is the moniker we've given to the
complex set of data, systems, mathematical
functions, statistics, algorithms, and adaptive
processes that generate Rational Picks. While we
know in our heads that RSM is not a living being, it
does sometimes feel as if it's alive.
How do you know the
predictions are going to work in
the future?
We believe RSM's predictions will
continue to perform well.
However, we know that past
performance is no guarantee of
future results. We do take a great
deal of care to make sure all the
data, mathematics and
methodologies used to create
and evolve The Rational Sports
Machine are as accurate as
possible. We also try to make
sure the information we provide to
you is correct, but we do not and
cannot guarantee that the data or
our prediction systems are 100%
error free.
predictions are going to work in
the future?
We believe RSM's predictions will
continue to perform well.
However, we know that past
performance is no guarantee of
future results. We do take a great
deal of care to make sure all the
data, mathematics and
methodologies used to create
and evolve The Rational Sports
Machine are as accurate as
possible. We also try to make
sure the information we provide to
you is correct, but we do not and
cannot guarantee that the data or
our prediction systems are 100%
error free.
What is the purpose of this web site?
This information presented on this website is for entertainment and educational purposes only. In other words, it’s for fun. If you are an
NFL fan we provide you with interesting information each week that we hope will increase your enjoyment of the sport. We provide it in a
simple and straightforward manner that, along with our accuracy and our quantitative and objective approach, sets us apart. We are the
only site that we are aware of that continuously projects the final season standings throughout the course of the season.
This information presented on this website is for entertainment and educational purposes only. In other words, it’s for fun. If you are an
NFL fan we provide you with interesting information each week that we hope will increase your enjoyment of the sport. We provide it in a
simple and straightforward manner that, along with our accuracy and our quantitative and objective approach, sets us apart. We are the
only site that we are aware of that continuously projects the final season standings throughout the course of the season.
I see this is the "NFL Edition". Can I get predictions for other sports?
Not yet. We are working on our expansion plans but want to stay focused on professional football for now. We'll let you know on this site
when there's something new.
Not yet. We are working on our expansion plans but want to stay focused on professional football for now. We'll let you know on this site
when there's something new.
How should I read the weekly predictions?
It's pretty simple. The first column lists the away team and the home team using the standard NFL abbreviations. The second column lists
the predicted winner of the game and the percentage probability of win as calculated by the Rational Sports Machine (RSM). The predicted
winner is the team that has a greater than 50% probability of winning that particular game. The probability of win is rounded to the nearest
whole number. As a result, it's possible that occasionally you will see a team listed as the predicted winner but with a 50% probability of
win. In that case RSM is projecting the game to be nearly a toss up but still giving an ever so slight edge to the team listed in the prediction
column. The third column captures the actual score. The fourth column indicates whether RSM's prediction was right or wrong.
It's pretty simple. The first column lists the away team and the home team using the standard NFL abbreviations. The second column lists
the predicted winner of the game and the percentage probability of win as calculated by the Rational Sports Machine (RSM). The predicted
winner is the team that has a greater than 50% probability of winning that particular game. The probability of win is rounded to the nearest
whole number. As a result, it's possible that occasionally you will see a team listed as the predicted winner but with a 50% probability of
win. In that case RSM is projecting the game to be nearly a toss up but still giving an ever so slight edge to the team listed in the prediction
column. The third column captures the actual score. The fourth column indicates whether RSM's prediction was right or wrong.
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